Utopia Talk / Politics / breakthrough

Sam Adams Member	Thu Nov 28 10:49:13 Re-armed syrian militias have opened a significant attack on soviet-bloc lines(assad, iran, hezbollah, russian) outside aleppo. A brigade-division sized soviet force was smashed, its iranian commander killed, and cia backed syrian militias are rolling into the suburbs of the city. It is unclear if the city can be held. Lol jergul you thought opening another front with clandestine proxies was something only you could do?
Average Ameriacn Member	Thu Nov 28 10:54:43 They are inspired by Trump's victory. Trump has not yet been sworn in, but he is already changing the course of world history!
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 11:05:00 Now if only Biden would grow a nut and actually take out Assad, and maybe even target Russian forces in Syria. Removing Assad would essentially neuter Hezbollah permanently.
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 11:06:19 And while he's at it, he should also take out Kim Jong Un for sending troops to Ukraine.
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 11:10:00 This should have been done 3 years ago to stretch out and stress Russian forces. Unfortunate Biden is a twat.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 12:16:03 You seem butthurt sammy. Why not double down and mention me in your initial post 4 times instead of the two you have managed so far?
Sam Adams Member	Thu Nov 28 12:46:35 I mean i saw the defense news and couldnt help but laugh a few times at your russian military dreams.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 12:50:54 Is that copium or hopium I wonder? Yes, so you support Islamists again (how could that go wrong?). Meanwhile in Ukraine...
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Nov 28 12:54:29 The Islamist that Jergul supports (Hezbollah, Islamic republic and Hamas) are totally different!
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 13:18:55 jergul: Why do you oppose democracy in Syria?
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 15:48:14 I am firmly in favour of democracy in Syria. Show me the roadmap. Breaking stuff is not a roadmap.
Paramount Member	Thu Nov 28 16:40:24 ”Why do you oppose democracy in ….” For an American, you have to be either ignorant or bold to ask such a question, considering that the USA has overthrown several democracies, and supported military dictatorships.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 29 01:17:57 Erdogan for all his rethoric and threats hurled against Israel, comes through and opens up another front against Russia and the axis. lol
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 05:40:01 That is President Tayip "ahaha, I got f-34s cheap to mix and match with my S-400ds" Erdogan to you Nimi.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 05:42:16 35s rather. Which also means that Russia was prewarned and the fallbacks were planned. Hence the low 100ds of losses to defenders and mid 100ds to the attackers. I think the plan is to let the Islamists have their Tet offensive.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 29 07:25:51 You wouldn't be the dunce you are if you did not take out your celebrations way too early. October 7th and the Israeli attack on the Islamic republic come to mind. If the inverse jergul tracker is still valid, I would say Aleppo is lost.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 08:22:39 So cute <3
Sam Adams Member	Fri Nov 29 10:20:26 Aleppo falls. That was fast.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 10:26:28 ^Speaking of premature ejaculations. VOA: "The government did not comment on insurgents breaching city limits"
Seb Member	Fri Nov 29 10:53:48 It was dumb to let Assad win previously. A lot could have been a avoided if Cameron and Obama hadn't blinked in 2013, and subsequent leaders at every opportunity afterwards.
Seb Member	Fri Nov 29 10:54:36 Jergul: Cf. Dayton accords.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Nov 29 10:55:54 Lol poor jergul.
Paramount Member	Fri Nov 29 11:22:14 It’s Islamic jihadist. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Turkey is likely involved. Erdogan wants to control Kurdish areas and get to the PKK (Nimatzo’s wifes people).
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 12:35:45 Jesus christ sammy. You are wrong at every turn and you project that to "poor jergul". You get a figleaf in Syria. Remember how you thought Assad was done? Or Iran was done? Or Russia was done? Get a grip and find reality. Please. I am asking for a friend.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 12:38:13 Seb The problem is the frozen conflict. Constitutional reform should have happened by now. The barrier is not Syrian regime resistance. It is the rebels that would be marginalized by their limited support in actual populated areas.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 12:38:54 Reform = democracy. The barrier is that the "wrong" people win democracy in the short term.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 12:40:20 So play the long game.
murder Member	Fri Nov 29 13:18:32 "I am firmly in favour of democracy in Syria. Show me the roadmap. Breaking stuff is not a roadmap." Breaking the grip on power of a minority that rules by force is a great first step.
murder Member	Fri Nov 29 13:19:36 And breaking stuff is a great roadmap. Because if you break it and it doesn't work out, you can always break it again.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Nov 29 13:23:06 "VOA: "The government did not comment on insurgents breaching city limits" Lol poor jergul.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 29 13:29:35 The Jergulian curse of premature ejaculation strikes a again. Half of Aleppo is lost.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 13:32:53 OMG. The projection. So cute <3. *Huggles*
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 13:36:14 Murder By that logic, punch yourself in the face. It will eventually make you prettier.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 13:38:57 More seriously, like I said to seb. The problem with Constitutional reform and new elections is that the "wrong" people win. Islamist insurgent groups turn out the be pretty marginalized nationally. So you would want to play the long game. Which is not really an immediate gratification generation thing. So, we can cite the Dayton accords from 1997 instead of understanding that a lot of civic development can take place over 30 years if you actually let it play out.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 13:42:40 I think a lot of our disagreements stem from me being the only one that believes the Western Securlar Democratic tradition is innately superior. Things will inevitably go our way if we let them play out. Woe Ye of little faith :(.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 13:51:33 That was unfair. Most of you are stuck in a tribal mindset: "Yay team". The actual facts do not matter. But some of you have an idea about ideological struggles. Here I believe time is on our side because our system is superior. You do not believe time is on our side because you cannot see any obvious superiority. So what are you fighting about again? You are wierd.
murder Member	Fri Nov 29 17:10:43 "By that logic, punch yourself in the face. It will eventually make you prettier." I don't need to be prettier. Some others could use it though.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 18:46:01 I should be more precise. My version of the Western, Secular, Democratic Tradition is innately superior. Spin-offs simulations tend to reek of blatant hypocracy and double standards, so are unlikely to catch on in the long run.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 19:14:27 rank double standards*
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 00:54:54 Aleppo citadel lost. Dam it Jergul! You just had to open you fucking mouth didn’t you?keep you fucking predictions to yourself in the future.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 01:45:20 Nimi, cutie-pie. What prediction?
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 01:58:49 What is your prediction for the Kurdish Sheikh Maqsoud district? Since your wife is kurdish and all. It seems pretty obvious at this point that Turkey did not give Russia a headsup, and well, Turkey does have a kurdish agenda.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 03:26:19 These are not the droids we are looking for.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 03:34:22 I think your retardation was obvious when you said “*let* the islamist have their Tet offensive”. Given that the Tet offensive famously marks the beginning of the of US presence in Vietnam. You were predicting the end of the Russia et al in Syria.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 03:45:07 "Given that the Tet offensive famously marks the beginning of the of US presence in Vietnam" Rofl. Sorry cutie, but that was just so wrong. Check it out on wiki if interested. The tet offensive cost the NV/VC dearly, but it also fundamentally weakened US resolve at home. The administration had been spinning the war to the enemy being close to defeat, yet it mounted a huge offensive that breached US embassy grounds amongst other things. It, more than anything, influenced the US decision to Vietnamise the conflict and pull out.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 03:48:18 The analogy is that the Islamists are now exposed to airpower and will take heavy losses now that the cease fire is over, but that the Regime will pay a very heavy PR price from any territorial gains the insurgents make. Kind of the opposite of what you thought darling.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 04:35:14 So many words, so emotional, so little substance. You analogy is bizarre, given that the Tet offensive, *famously* marks a turning point, the beginning of the end. You are predicting the end of Russian et al in Syria, with you Tet offensive reference? I think you fucked up and forgot what the Tet offensive was all about, you went to wikipedia and now you are trying to Jergulize it so that it makes sense in the context you brought it up it. lol you dunce :) "darling" I have been meaning to tell you, but recently you have become really gay and creepy. Like even more gay and creepy than usual.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 04:39:13 Given that the Tet offensive famously marks the beginning of the [end]of US presence in Vietnam. You were predicting the *end* of the Russia et al in Syria. This may have confused you as to what I just said, given that you have massive problems with reading comprehension and contexts and read everything I say in an emotionally heightened state. You should do a better job hiding how badly I get under your skin.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 05:11:07 hehehe, the hapless projection. You are very cute nimi. Not very smart, but very cute <3
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 07:04:23 Mhm Anyway, things look very dark right now in Syrian, looks like Assad forces have retreated on a broad front, SDF has swooped in. Frontline collapsing on multiple axis. A disaster.
Paramount Member	Sat Nov 30 07:25:05 There’s no reason to worry. If the USA/CIA is involved there will be democracy soon.
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 07:36:13 Ma'arat al-Nu'man has reportedly fallen to the rebels.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 30 07:41:49 The scale of the soviet bloc collapse is so large one starts to wonder if assad can hold syria.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 30 07:45:48 There are no insurgents in aleppo! Lol good call jergul.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 08:01:22 Rugian Allegedly even Khan Sheykhoun..
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 08:07:03 Nim Possibly supporting that claim, the Russians are supposedly retreating from al-Suqaylabiyah as well. Oh boy. Is Hama going to be in danger soon?
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 08:33:55 Yup...the rebels are marching south as well: "18 minutes ago Sheikh Mustafa and Maarat Harmah in the southern Idlib countryside were captured by rebels 22 minutes ago Opposition groups seized the towns of Morek, Kafr Zita and Marzeta in northern Hama"
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 08:58:42 Sammy VOA. Bad call by VOA.
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 10:04:46 "42 minutes ago Confirmed mass withdrawals of the government army from the city of Hama are taking place now" Epic fail.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 10:12:01 From what I have heard, this was especially the case in Aleppo, nobody filled the positions when Hezbollah left for southern Lebanon.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 10:18:06 Kurds repelled the first Islamist attack on their part of Aleppo (Kurdish forces hold about a quarter of the city if memory serves). Also, first POW execution just dropped.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 10:27:55 Israel is starting to look a little bit smarter. There is solid logic to the Lebanon offensive if the plan was a followup punch by Islamists in Syria. 60k insurgents. That is like a third of the force Russia steam rolled Ukraine with initially. Though there was eventually a pretty broad pullback from that overreach.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 30 10:52:42 "Sammy VOA. Bad call by VOA." Bad call by you trusting a bad source.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 30 10:53:26 Rumors that assad has fled
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 30 11:01:30 Think you can hold damascus jergul?
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 11:28:16 "There’s no reason to worry. If the USA/CIA is involved there will be democracy soon." I don't think we're involved.
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 11:35:01 Rebels are starting to enter Hama. I don't think the city has ever previously fallen to the rebels. Whoops.
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 11:36:49 That being said, even if Hama falls I'd be surprised if Assad decided to throw in the towel. The rebels would still have another 140 miles to cover before reaching Damascus, and they got Homs standing in the way.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 11:45:54 I’m almost too afraid to ask, but what does Jergul think?
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 12:12:03 Sammy I dunno. I only follow one conflict at a time closely. It depends mostly on popular sentiment. 60k is not an occupation force able to hold hostile territory effectively. Murder You are involved. The F-35 release to Turkey is unlikely coincidental. An assymetrical effort on behalf of both Israel and Ukraine. Nimi What do you think? Will the Kurds be able to hold the 25% of Alepo they hold, or will the Islamists overwhelm them?
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 12:13:46 Sammy True. Voice of America is a known US propaganda outlet. My bad.
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 12:19:09 "You are involved." Not likely with al-Qaeda remnants involved and them attacking the Kurds. If we are it's almost certainly a Trump/Erdogan deal.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 12:21:50 A biden-Erdogan deal. Biden released the F-35s.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 12:23:01 But I do have issues with the premise that "The US would never back terrorists". Indirect backing by way of Turkey is still support.
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 12:32:00 It's your assertion that the F-35s had anything to do with it. I don't accept that.
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 12:33:51 "But I do have issues with the premise that "The US would never back terrorists"" I never said any such thing. I never would. Cuban exiles, CIA, yada yada ... Back al-Qaeda is a whole other thing. 9/11 yada yada ...
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 12:47:04 ^ doesn't apply to Trump because he's a moron and doesn't know anything about anything and doesn't care. He also would have no loyalty towards the Kurds since they haven't named him their king yet. ;o)
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 30 12:49:19 They didn't help us in Normandy you know.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 13:06:52 Fair enough murder. Though I do think one degree of separation through Turkey resolves that particular bad taste (also one degree of separation between the new AQ and whatever OBL had going back then).
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 13:07:55 Murder I think Turkey was asked to give a hand and Turkey said "ahem, F-35s seem to be stuck for some reason".
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 13:09:29 Just a regular tuesday transactional deal. Its not as if F-35s do not create US jobs or anything. The reason for blocking sales in the first place was spurious (waah s400ds maybe data leak, but actually just not Patriot systems).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 30 13:13:27 Jergul I know way too little about what is going on, things are moving too quickly and very little in the way facts. I have no comments. How about that for an answer :-) Completely unverified rumors of coup attempt in Syria.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 30 14:08:25 A good answer.
murder Member	Sat Nov 30 15:24:23 btw this is a perfect example of why you don't establish a ceasefire and let the enemy hang around unless you simply can't defeat them. If you let them live, you will be dealing with them again.
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