Utopia Talk / Politics / Lebanon: Israel fell for it again.

murder Member	Tue Nov 26 18:48:38 Sharing new details of ceasefire deal, US official says international community learned from mistakes of 2006 A senior Biden administration official involved in the Lebanon ceasefire negotiations fills in additional details of the agreement during a briefing with reporters. Israeli troops will initially hold their positions at the start of the 60-day period commencing the ceasefire, the senior US official says, explaining that Israel’s gradual withdrawal will only begin when soldiers from the Lebanese military begin being deployed in southern Lebanon, to ensure that no vacuums are created in the interim. “This is a process that cannot happen overnight or in several days.” The senior US official clarifies that this doesn’t mean the withdrawal will only begin after 60 days. “Rather, by the time we reach somewhere in the 50 to 60 days, all Israeli troops will be gone… In the first couple of weeks, you’ll already start seeing some of those [IDF] troops withdraw.” During the 60-day period, the US official says that the Lebanese government has authorized its military to verify that Hezbollah moves north of the Litani River, which is located roughly 18 miles north of Israel’s border. There is an agreed-upon map that details the exact lines to which Hezbollah is required to retreat and where specifically the Lebanese army will be deployed. Lebanese troops will be tasked with patrolling southern Lebanon to ensure that any remaining Hezbollah infrastructure is removed and cannot be rebuilt, the senior US official says. The ceasefire agreement will also see the US and France join an existing mechanism to monitor the deal’s implementation. Referred to date as the tripartite mechanism and consisting of representatives from Israel, Lebanon and the UNIFIL observer force, the panel failed to ensure the upholding of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which had required Hezbollah to disarm and retreat north of the Litani River. Under the new deal, the US will become the chair of this enforcement mechanism, which will also be enhanced by France’s presence, the senior administration official says. The committee made up of diplomats and military personnel will be tasked with adjudicating complaints from either side regarding potential ceasefire violations. The panel will also work to ensure that the Lebanese army is properly trained and equipped to ensure the ceasefire’s implementation, the US official says. While US combat troops will not be on the ground, “there will be [US] military support for the Lebanese Armed Forces,” the official adds. There will be a separate committee called the Military Technical Committee (MTC) made up of additional countries who will provide additional financial support, equipment and training to the LAF, the US official says. Unlike the 2006 ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah when the international community “abandoned the scene” after it was reached, “here we remain committed to being on the ground, day to day, watching what’s happening,” the US official says. The international community is determined to “learn from the mistakes of the past, when Hezbollah was the only organization” involved in the reconstruction of Lebanon. “It is in our interests… to support economic growth” in Lebanon, says the senior official. The US official also stresses that Hezbollah is “extremely weak at this moment — both militarily and politically,” which presents an opportunity for the Lebanese government to re-establish its sovereignty, particularly by appointing a president — something that Hezbollah blocked for years. The deal announced today is not “offering Israel a temporary security guarantee, rather a durable ceasefire that [it] can trust,” the senior US official says. Asked repeatedly to elaborate on the ceasefire’s enforcement mechanism, given reports claiming that the US has provided Israel with guarantees allowing it to immediately strike Lebanon upon alleged Hezbollah violations, the senior US official declines to do so. Instead, the US official highlights to the now-US-led enforcement committee, which he says will not be a “mailbox” like it was in the years following the Second Lebanon War. Instead, it will operate as a “live messaging service, making sure that whenever there is a view of a violation — specifically a serious violation — it is addressed immediately.” http://www...learned-from-mistakes-of-2006/
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Nov 27 01:00:37 Yes, in the best of worlds Hezbollah would have been disarmed by Lebanon as part of a permanent cease fire. This deal is a treason by the decrepit Biden regime. To pay the devil his dues, Hezbollah has fought heroically in the south, futile, but with ferocity. With all thay said, this is a historic defeat for Hezbollah and the Islamic republic. While Hezbollah has not won any wars in the past, it was also never defeated, until now. The dying words of Nasrallah was that they would continue the war until there was a cease fire in Gaza. This cease fire (not the end of the war) is a capitulation. They promised 1500 ballistic missiles per day and they have not even been able to fire off 100 *rockets* per day, verifying the Israeli claim that they deatroyed 80% of their arsenal. Hezbollah is a spent force and will never be what it was, think Al Qaeda or Islamic state, technically they are still around and have fighters. The end of Hezbollah is largely a factor of the Islamic republic being in an accelerated state of decline.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 27 04:54:03 It served its purpose from Iran's perspective. Of course Hezb will rebuild and of course it will frame the outcome as a victory for the resistance. But Oreshnik has arrived as a proof of concept and is technologically within Iran's reach. 1 hypersonic missile with 6 maneuvrable warheads and 36 submunitions in total. Nothing you can Iron dome or David's arrow to put it that way.
murder Member	Wed Nov 27 10:56:22 If Hezbollah was spent, the Israelis would have finished them off. Biden had no sway here. We're less than 2 months from Trump taking over. The Israelis could have simply told Biden to pound sand. It's far more likely that the Israelis are close to spent, and that they needed to stop fighting on their northern front in order to have the capacity to deal with the remaining job in Gaza.
murder Member	Wed Nov 27 11:03:21 "But Oreshnik has arrived as a proof of concept and is technologically within Iran's reach." Oh no! Not another Russian super weapon! *eyeroll* "1 hypersonic missile with 6 maneuvrable warheads and 36 submunitions in total." So what ... ~ 100 lbs per submunition? "Nothing you can Iron dome or David's arrow to put it that way." Of course not. You can just let it miss on it's own.
TheChildren Member	Wed Nov 27 11:28:04 there aint no 7 day war now... gone those dayz.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 27 13:54:46 Murder 100 kg. Not a super weapon, simply a viable deterrent. Like Hezb has always been for Iran. Otherwise, agreed on what you said.
Rugian Member	Wed Nov 27 14:13:26 It's a truce that gives Israel 60 days to withdraw. Biden is in office for 54. The faggots in the Biden administration have been slow-walking ammunition shipments to Israel, and the Israelis doubtless remember how Obama fucked them over in his last days in office. It's a strategic move. Play nice with the pro-Islamic terroristic regime in Washington until they're replaced by the MAGA crowd...then go balls to the wall with nuking all of Iran's proxies.
Paramount Member	Wed Nov 27 14:28:07 The Zionazis became disappointed when Lebanese families took their children and evacuated from Southern Lebanon because there were no children left there that they could kill. Instead the Lebanese resistance, Hezbollah, moved in and beated the Zionazis who now wants to withdraw from Lebanon. But as soon as the Lebanese families with children returns to their homes in Southern Lebanon, the Zionazis are gonna start killing the children and the women again.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 27 16:13:01 Ruggy Trump is pretty transactional. What does sending weapons to Israel get him exactly? I think the pro-zionist crowd might be in for a big disappointment. The only way Trump is going to build the 5ht temple (or whatever number) is if he can brand it a Trump Tower.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 27 16:13:58 One in 5 odds of big disappointment in case "might" is a word you struggle with.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Nov 27 21:52:01 "Like Hezb has always been for Iran." Oh you deterred israel so well. Lmfao.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Nov 28 04:19:42 murder "If Hezbollah was spent, the Israelis would have finished them off." Israel's aim was to end the war in the north and return the citizens to their homes. They have done this. In that process they obliterated Hezbollah to where it is not only not a threat and has abandoned the very reason for entering the war to help Hamas. This is a bit like asking why the Islamic state or Al Qaeda have not been finished off, because, Islamic who? Al Qawhat? Nobody care anymore, they are a dried husk. I would not bet the farm that Trump is interested in a conflict in Lebanon or with the Islamic republic, these are long term goals that require the kind of patience that facilitated the pager attacks. With the north dealt with Israel can go back to slowly cleansing Gaza, there is no hurry there, everyone has now largely accepted the reality and Israel has at least 4 years of Trump to deal with Gaza at its own pace.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 04:59:42 Sammy You think in absolutes. That is a sign of a weak mind. Shape up. Israel does not bomb Iran twice a week. Much as it would like to. The sum of deterrence makes it so.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Nov 28 05:53:01 The reason Israel does not bomb IRGC inside Iran weekly, is for the same reason I don’t punch you in the face weekly. You are so far away and getting my fist to your face is a logistical nightmare. Had your face been as close to me as say Syria is to Israel, I would be punching you in the face every week. Unsurprisingly Israel has been bombing IRGC generals and assets in Syria every week for the last 8 years and this happened as late as *flips through papers* last week. Where have you been? And I mean this is double the retardation as a deterrent isn’t very effective if it (the deterrent) can be destroyed in isolation. Come on man. You can’t be this retarded.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 06:41:22 "keeping it real". Rofl.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 06:43:39 Though I have to say, I have never met a man less patriotic that you. No matter which of the two options you might be from.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Nov 28 10:28:45 Nimatzo is correct. Add in international whining from bidens macrons and other antisemitic losers.
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 10:48:12 "Israel's aim was to end the war in the north and return the citizens to their homes. They have done this. In that process they obliterated Hezbollah to where it is not only not a threat and has abandoned the very reason for entering the war to help Hamas. This is a bit like asking why the Islamic state or Al Qaeda have not been finished off, because, Islamic who? Al Qawhat? Nobody care anymore, they are a dried husk." If the dried husks of al-Qaeda and ISIS were on the US border, you better believe it would be a problem and they would have been finished off. You may no longer view Hezbollah as a threat to Israel, but they are a threat because that is their sole purpose. They will rearm and do this all again within 10 years. And with both extremes of the US electorate becoming more hostile to Israel, it may be sooner than that.
murder Member	Thu Nov 28 10:56:45 "The reason Israel does not bomb IRGC inside Iran weekly, is for the same reason I don’t punch you in the face weekly. You are so far away and getting my fist to your face is a logistical nightmare." This is true. But the Islamic Republic is just as far away from Israel, and they hit Israel in the face regularly. And that's why allowing Hezbollah to survive was a huge mistake. The Islamic Republic has an outpost right on Israel's border in Lebanon as well as Syria, and Israel can't counter that. The result is that close to 100% of the war is concentrated in and around Israel. It's a war for Israel, but a proxy war for the Islamic Republic. You're never going to win that fight.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Nov 28 11:31:30 Israel is not the united states, they are a much smaller nation with far more humble means, they can tolerate dried husks. Again, I implore you to seperate your own wish casting and view things from the realities on the ground. “They will rearm and do this all again within 10 years.“ That boat has sailed, the Islamic repuilic is in no position to rebuild Hezbollah, this is not 2006. For every year that goes by it is increasingly more difficult for the Islamic republic to keep the lights on. Did you know there are rolling black outs in Iran? Unfortunately, nothing you are saying actually maps on to reality on the ground, in Israel or Iran. You are making the same mistake Jergul makes, he thinks this is a video game and the axis has the cheat codes for infinite tries and reaources. “It's a war for Israel, but a proxy war for the Islamic Republic.” Again, you have no idea what you are talking about. This war is 40+ years of prestige, it is not just a moral and strategic war for the Islamic republic, but one of religious importance. Hezbollah was the crown achievement in this war. I have explained all of this bedore and my bet is that the powers that be in Israel understand these things perfectly well. Hence why they have been using soft power in Iran and on the population and hitting IRGC where it hurts, effectively, methodically and patiently. This year has been terrible for the Islamic republic, there is no coming back from this, normally the EU would try to counter balance and be the carrot to the American stick. However, helping Russia in the Ukraine war, was a real effective way to get on the shitty side with the EU. It’s over, GG.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 12:05:31 Nimi Iran is doomed! Look at my cherry picked metric!! Electricity demand is outpacing growth in electricity production. So, brownouts. Iranians per capita have a ludicrously high energy consumption. They love their crypto mining.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Nov 28 12:22:21 Jergul you rank among the dumbest Islamic republic supporters. It is for the likes of you that the _Islamic republic_ is indeed doomed. Because they out a bunch morons in charge, people who talkes too much with too much authority and listened too little. Like not even dunning kruger level of stupid, just stupid. Unfortunately they (people like you) have managed to damage Iran so bad they may have doomed to country to decades of darkness and retardation even after they are gone. Very sad for Iranians, great for her enemies, such is reality.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 28 12:47:59 Lets remove the insults and see what is left: "Very sad for Iranians, great for her enemies, such is reality." Hmm, you do not seem to base that conclusion on very much except your emoting. You and your feelings. You are very cute <3. The reality is of course that a country under sanctions since the start looks like is slowly doing better as hegemonies fall and multilateralism prevails.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 29 00:30:34 Indeed, at this point to do anything but insult you, would be an insult to decency and one’s intelligence. We have moved beyond that even, anyone who takes anything you say seriously, is a fucking moron.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 29 07:26:37 Like I said, you are cute when you emote, so keep it up. It adds joy to my day <3
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