Utopia Talk / Politics / The pollsters weren't wrong after all

Rugian Member	Sat Nov 09 07:39:14 "Pollster J. Ann Selzer suggested her pre-election Iowa poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead had "energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters" to prove it wrong in her post-mortem Thursday. Her Des Moines Register/Mediacom shock poll showed a 7-point shift from President-elect Donald Trump to Harris from September, when he had a 4-point lead over the vice president (47% to 43%), to Saturday when she was up 3 (47% to 44%), in a state Trump had carried easily in 2016 and 2020 and hadn't been considered a swing state in 2024. Much of the media took her words as gospel, as pundits on MSNBC, CNN and ABC’s "The View" all celebrated the forecast, hoping it was a positive sign for Harris on Election Day. After the results came in, Trump supporters and conservatives quickly slammed and mocked Selzer’s poll. Selzer wrote in an op-ed for the Des Moines Register that she had been getting bombarded with criticism and questions. In response, she suggested her poll itself may have shifted the state for Trump. "My inbox and my voice mail have been full of questions the last few days — those who wanted to know why I ‘manipulated’ the data to show a false Harris lead, and those who wondered if the data were too good to be true," Selzer wrote. She continued, "In response to a critique that I ‘manipulated’ the data, or had been paid (by some anonymous source, presumably on the Democratic side), or that I was exercising psyops or some sort of voter suppression: I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory. Maybe that’s what happened."" http://www...epublican-voters-proving-wrong
Sam Adams Member	Sat Nov 09 08:42:23 She ruined her reputation with that one for sure. What was she off by... 13 points? At the last minute? Towards the democrat with the giant team of media sycophants and corruption? If that wasnt an outright lie(unlikely), she chose a really bad time to be that wrong.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 08:49:58 I think I am standing by my theory that a significant number of polled people maliciously mislead polsters. Rawr deep state tricked again.
obaminated Member	Sat Nov 09 10:12:37 It's more like the people who tend to answer polls are going to be college educated upper class and those tend to go liberal. Conservatives hang up when they hear it's a robocall or an otherwise waste of their time. Also saying outloud you were going to vote for trump was just gonna cause a headache cause rabid liberals would harass you. Ive said all this before. Glad I was right.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 12:23:47 Obam Not that simple. Pollsters can deal with selection bias. Malicious disinformation is almost certainly the culprit. A significant (say 10%) of polled people planning to vote Trump, but stating otherwise has sufficient explanatory power.
Jebbebiah Wilkins Member	Sat Nov 09 12:26:33 I told them that I was voting for Trump despite the fact that I once fucked a tranny. I think they changed my answer to "liberal" on their own.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 12:26:46 With that said. It is not a human right for pollsters to be given truthful information. It just means that margin of errors need adjusting. +-15% 19 times of 20. Or just used booking agencies and assume gamblers are a representative selection of the voting pool. They are not, but the margin of error is certainly smaller than 15% by that metric.
obaminated Member	Sat Nov 09 13:27:25 No jergul, pollsters can't deal with selection bias. This is why they were wrong in 2016 and massively wrong this time around. Polling in general is a bullshit scam used mainly for cable news to talk about how each candidate is doing to fill up time slots.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 14:23:09 Obam They can. They failed in 2016 because trump voters provided false information. Its bullshit because a sizable portion of your population have lost faith in your system in its entirety. Lying to pollsters is just a symptom of a much grander issue.
Rugian Member	Sat Nov 09 14:31:39 "They failed in 2016 because trump voters provided false information." [citation needed]
obaminated Member	Sat Nov 09 14:36:04 Jergul actually thinks people would sooner talk to a pollster with the sole purpose of lying to them rather than just hang up on said pollster. I mean, it's coming down to jergul not understanding the most basic of human behavior and instead is leaping to absurd theories to come to the conclusion that best fits his agenda.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 09 16:13:05 “it's coming down to jergul not understanding the most basic of human behavior and instead is leaping to absurd theories“ Yepp, that’s Jergul alright :-) but the fact that it is now a completely unverifiable theory, shows how deep into Hot Rod territory he has ventured. He just doesn’t care anymore.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 17:19:04 Ruggy Tons of sources on it. They called it "shy trump supporters". Obam Do I think a portion of Maga would totally be assholes to screw with polsters? Absolutely. You should think so too. Pollsters can screen for selection bias. Its like a problem so obvious, you might even have heard of it at the upper end of your educational path. Nimi Yawn.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 09 17:22:11 Like I said, there is nothing inherently wrong with screwing over pollsters. But it does mean polls have to adjust their error rates to embrace the inherent unpredictability of human nature. One of the assumptions is that those polled tell the truth. Rookie mistake in the Maga era. I think just going with the betting agencies the best path moving forward. Money where mouth is so to speak.
Habebe Member	Sat Nov 09 18:38:12 I partly agree with jergul, ppl may mislead. But I don't thibk it's very wodespread. With this particular poll however, she weighted the numbers hard left with women Nd seniors. All polls wieght the numbers, thats how they work, she just did a poor job of it.
TheChildren Member	Sun Nov 10 03:20:30 ya mean they lied just like they constantlydo russie russie chayna chaayna? no really?
Sam Adams Member	Mon Nov 18 11:02:10 Selzer quits/retires
Rugian Member	Mon Nov 18 11:49:05 An entire career destroyed, her once-sterling reputation in ruins... ...and on top of that, there's a good chance that the check from the Harris campaign bounces. Lol
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